Monday, March 19, 2012

Mile High Manning?



            The news came through the pipeline today. Peyton Manning is working on negotiating a deal with the Denver Broncos. As I told some of my friends, I couldn’t see Manning as a Bronco simply because of the orange in the jersey, but I guess it is going to happen. Lets look at what Manning will have at his disposal in Colorado.

O-Line: The Denver Broncos have shown that they can run block, but they still have some ways to go in the pass blocking game. Obviously, not having a pocket passer can hurt an offensive lines pass blocking numbers, but the Broncos did give up 42 sacks in 2011, 9th worst in the NFL. That number will have to go down as the Broncos protect the (possibly) fragile neck of Peyton Manning

RB: Willis McGahee has proven himself to be a solid ground-and-pound type running back. He was willing to carry the ball a lot, and he still had energy to break out and gain large chunks of yardage when it was available. Knowshon Moreno had a solid end to the 2011 season as well, giving Manning a strong ground game to complement the passing game.

TE: Well, lets hope the Broncos saved some money to sign a pass catching tight end, because this group was not used at all during the Tebow era in Denver. The leading pass catcher among the current tight ends had 19 receptions last year…not good. Again, we can chalk some of that up to Tebowmania, but under a Manning led offense, an athletic tight end with reliable hands is a must. The Broncos must be sure that this position is upgraded.

WR: Even with one of the worst passing games in the league, Demaryius Thomas has proven that he can be a game changer. He can stretch the field vertically, and he has good hands. The fact that Manning’s old friend Brandon Stokely is already on the roster has been much discussed, and I am sure a few footballs will be thrown his way. On the other side of the field, Eddie Royal has had some really productive years of football, and he should only get better with a traditional, accurate quarterback throwing him passes.

Defense: The Broncos were able to make a surprise run to the playoffs in 2011 partly because of the ground heavy and Tebow specified offense that they employed, but they also used an improved defense to work their way into the playoffs. The return of Elvis Dumervil and emergence of rookie LB Von Miller really shored up the pass rush and run defense, but they were in the middle of the pack for both Opponent passing yards and rushing yards per game (18th and 22nd overall). The defense needs to look into replacing Champ Bailey at CB with another lockdown-type corner. This is obviously not the defense that Manning could have had with the 49ers, but I think they are trending in the correct direction

Overall: With the addition of Manning, I think the Broncos become the clear favorites to win the AFC West. The Raiders and Chiefs are just not there from a talent or consistency perspective, and the Chargers lost 2 very important offensive players in free agency this year. My predictions for Manning:

3,200 yds, 24 TD, 14 INT, 63% CMP%

 These numbers are clearly below his season bests, even his season averages, but I think the Broncos will stick to their devastation running game and allow Manning to manage the offense without constantly being the only option, like he had to be in Indianapolis. His Completion % will be down, but should still be solid as he learns a new offense and connects with new players. I would not be surprised at all to see the Broncos win 10+ games, win the division, and win a playoff game in 2012. I would also not be surprised to see Manning organizing throwing sessions with Royal, Thomas, and Stokely before April is over. The man knows his business.

Thoughts? Predictions?

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