2012 NFL Draft: First 10 Picks

Well folks, the 2012 NFL Draft is almost upon us! There has been a lot of media chatter around this draft, and there are some teams who putting their reputation and future on the line with this draft. I want to look at the first 10 picks of the draft, after which my draft knowledge will have mostly run out. The first 10 is where the big drama happens anyway!

1.     Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Andrew Luck (as of yesterday) has been informed by the Colts that he will be the #1 pick. Not that this comes as a surprise, but it is nice to get the pretend argument between Luck and Griffin off the table. The Colts are throwing all of their eggs in this basket. If Luck washes out in a year or three, it will be devastating to this franchise. No pressure, but he has the potential to be Peyton Manning 2.0.

2.     Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Robert Griffin is a sprinter, a thrower, and a thinker. He seems to have all of the necessary tools to be the most complete quarterback…ever. It seems crazy, but people are already comparing him to Cam Newton mixed with Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb. Those are 3 professional quarterbacks who have won a lot of football games. If Griffin can even be half as successful as his potential, he will be a league average quarterback.

3.     Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

The Vikings think that they have a keeper in young quarterback Christian Ponder. However, common logic dictates that a quarterback must be on his feet in order to make accurate throws. Kalil is universally regarded as the best lineman in the draft, and he could fill either outside spot on the offensive line for 10+ years. This is not a sexy pick, but it is the kind of pick that helps move a franchise in the right direction.

4.     Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The experts are currently predicting that the Browns take the best RB on the board by a mile, Trent Richardson. Nothing against Richardson, he is one of the best RB prospects to come out of college in a few years. He can run hard, break tackles, outdistance pursuit, catch the football, he is a monster in the gym, etc. However, history says that running backs can be drafter in the 2^nd and 3^rd round and still be sold contributors to a team. I only hope the Browns can run block well enough for Richardson to succeed.

5.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Clairborn, CB, LSU

Remember when Tiki Barber retired 4 years ago? Well, his brother is still playing CB for the Bucs. Not to say Ronde Barber is old, but the Bucs definitely need to consider the pass defense when they look at this draft. Clairborn is an incredibly solid pass defender, he can tackle, and he is a high character player who will be a benefit to Tampa Bay as an organization.

6.     St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, OK ST.

Jeff Fisher and the Rams think that Sam Bradford is their QB, both today and tomorrow. Some experts think that one way to develop a good quarterback is to give him a good player to toss the ‘ol pigskin to. This is where Blackmon comes in. He put up video game numbers in college, can run a good route, and has a large frame. While he is not the second coming of Megatron, Blackmon should be a consistent and talented target for Bradford.

7.     Jacksonville Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE, SC

Most of the experts are calling Ingram as the pick for the Jaguars. My initial thought for this pick was Coples from UNC, but Ingram is the safer pick. He could be a standup 3-4 linebacker, or a traditional end on a 4-3 scheme. He will provide a disruptive presence for the Jags from day 1, even if they rotate him in and out depending on the situation. In my opinion, Ingram is athletic enough to stay in on all downs, but we will see.

8.     Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

With all of the attention afforded to the first 2 picks in this draft, Tannehill has gone relatively unnoticed until the last few weeks. Now, as the draft draws nigh, teams are noticing that Griffin and Luck aren’t the only QB’s with great fundamentals, surprising athleticism, and a bright future. If the Dolphins can groom Tannehill on the sideline for a minute or three, he could be a really solid NFL player.

9.     Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

This is the first pick in this draft where the talking heads start to disagree. At this point, Poe has a higher ceiling but more questions than other DT options in this draft. Fletcher Cox, the next DT on the board, is a very solid player who could contribute immediately, but Poe has the opportunity to be a franchise changing defensive player. If there is one thing the Panthers need, it is a better run-stopping, gap-plugging interior defensive lineman.

10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

With the addition of Mario Williams, the DL is definitely an area of strength for the Bills. However, for this team to succeed, the other line needs to be stronger. They grow large people out there in Iowa, and Reiff could be one factor that could help make sure Ryan Fitzpatricks contract is actually worth it.

            That is how I am predicting the first 10 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft to shake down. There are still some really fantastic players on the board. Luke Kuechly, Quinton Coples, Michael Floyd, Dre Kirkpatrick, Stephon Gilmore, and Kendall Wright are all players who could make an immediate impact on the team that drafts them. Let me know what you think, or argue with me about your teams pick! Next year, I will be wiser and do 15 picks. 

Evaluating Advanced Pitching Stats

Evaluating Advanced Pitching Stats.

I was trolling around espn.com today, and I decided to take a look at some pitching statistics through the first 2 weeks of the major league season. Now, In my mind, ESPN can seem like a very frilly and superficial website at some points, but in this instance their statistics were very interesting. I just wanted to review a couple of the more interested metrics that can used to evaluate a pitcher. In my opinion, baseball General Managers would be well served to pay attention to all of these metrics before giving contracts and paying for players.

1.     Average Game Score (information taken from Wikipedia)

Average Game score can be computed by using the following steps:

1. Start with 50 points
2. add 1 point for each out recorded
3. add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th inning
4. add 1 point for each strikeout
5. subtract 2 points for each hit allowed
6. subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed
7. subtract 2 points for every unearned run allowed
8. subtract 1 point for each walk

At the end of all of this MATH! you will have the Game Score for that particular pitcher and that particular start. I love this metric because it allows us to tell the difference between two stellar pitching performances, and it gives us an easy way to rank pitchers if we average a season's worth of game scores together.

2.     Pitches Per Inning Pitched

This statistic obviously measures the average amount of pitches that any given pitcher takes to get through an inning. This may seem like a pretty boring stat, but it is incredibly important when you talk about longevity for a starting pitcher or a reliever. In this day of strict pitch counts and increased concern for pitcher health, it is incredibly important to a lot of teams that their pitchers conserve pitches. If a pitcher takes 25 pitches on average to get through an inning, he will most likely only throw 4 innings, perhaps 5 at the most.

            I heard a few commentators mention the other night on TV that pitchers need to trust their defense. They have 7 men playing on the field behind them, and it is important that a pitcher not be afraid of contact. Even the best hitters only have success 30-35 percent of the time. 70 percent of the time the fielders behind that pitcher will be successful in getting a batter out. If a pitcher will pitch to contact some of the time, he can help to keep his Pitches per Inning number low, thus staying in the game longer.

3.     Quality Starts

I am interested in this statistic for a couple of reasons. One, just like the Game Score, this helps us understand when a pitcher is actually being effective for his team. Two, one of my fantasy baseball leagues has started to include Quality Starts and OPS in the rotisserie style scoring, moving to a 12 category league instead of the ESPN standard 10 category.

            A Quality start is achieved when a pitcher goes at least 6 innings, giving up 3 runs or less. A pitcher who achieves a quality start gives his team a better chance of winning the ball game.

            One criticism of this metric is that it can be very unfair in certain situations. For instance, a pitcher could pitch a complete game and give up 4 earned runs and not earn a quality start. That seems to be more valuable than 6 innings and 3 runs, but would not fall under the category. Despite its flaws, this is still a useful measuring stick to judge pitching performance.

Unfortunately, there are still one very prominent sabermetric measure that ESPN does not use. ERA+ is an interesting evaluating tool, very popular among baseball statisticians, that I would like to see on their website.

Do you have a favorite advanced statistic? Do you even enjoy looking at stats?

Quick Baseball Thoughts

Sorry about the long delay in posts, but I just had a couple of thoughts about the first week-ish of the MLB regular season

• A lot of batters are starting off slow. I am sure just as many are starting off on a role, but players like Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Shin-Soo Choo are all starting off slowly this season. Pick it up fellas!

• New spots for old players. Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera are starting off just fine at 3B this season, playing passable defense in the first week. However, Mark Trumbo has committed 3 errors in two games, been benched for Alberto Callaspo, and has hit out of the DH spot in one game. Some consistency would be nice for Los Angelos.

• Hurrah for extra inning games! The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians combined for nearly 30 innings of baseball in their first two games this season. That is not only ridiculous, but it is a lot of fun to see. Everyone likes to see records broken this early in the season.

• I am very impressed by the athletes in today's MLB. Players like Peter Bourjos, Michael Bourn, Dexter Fowler, Eric Aybar, and Dee Gordon are wowing everyone with their physical prowess. These players are speed demons, and they should be running wild all season.

Look forward for an NBA Playoff column in a couple weeks, an NFL Draft reaction, perhaps a CBB top 16 for next season, and who knows what else!

Inspiration and Information

As a blogger (although I am rank with amateurness) I read a lot of blogs and follow a lot of people on Twitter so that I am up to date with the latest news and stories of note. For those who love sporting news as much as I do, I thought I would list some of the people and websites that I most appreciate when I am looking for sports news.

Blogs:

1.     ESPN TrueHoop network (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop)

The TrueHoop network on ESPN.com has quickly become the largest group of basketball bloggers on the internet. Henry Abbot is the man in charge of the site, and he and his staff do an amazing job of collecting blogger news from around the country each morning for their “First Cup” series. They have also been running a HoopIdea category, where they ask for suggestions to improve the game of basketball. There is simply a lot of stuff worth reading on this conglomerate of blogs.

2.     ProBasketballTalk

NBCsports.com is the host for the ProBasketballTalk group. This website, better than most, does a great job of breaking news about NBA events in a timely manner. Their website is updated very quickly, and although a lot of their articles are short, they are done so promptly that it doesn’t matter

3.     HardBallTalk

The baseball counterpart to ProBasketballTalk, this is where I go to read recaps of the previous night’s games, news on who is ITBSOTL (In the best shape of their life), and to generally get a lot of snarky/funny baseball talk. I really enjoy this constantly updated blog.

4.     Buster Olney

The word Buster is the best description for Buster Olney and his ESPN Insider baseball column. This guy works as hard or harder than anyone else in the business. His morning column of baseball news probably has 75+ links in it…EVERY MORNING. He is fantastic at trolling the webs, contacting baseball sources, and writing intelligently about baseball every day. He also ends his article the same way every single time: “And today will be better than yesterday”. Good stuff

5.     Monday Morning Quarterback by Peter King

This is only a once weekly column, best read during the NFL regular season, but it is always chock full with awesome NFL news and analysis. Peter King is one of the nicest guys around, and he seems to be available to every player in the league. I would love to see his phone contacts someday, because this man is well connected. I really don’t get many ideas from this column, but it is one of my favorites, so I needed to mention it.

Twitter Handles I Follow:

@claytonESPN (John Clayton, ESPN)

@KGknowsSports (Kevin Gilbert, sports blogger)

@Ken_Rosenthal (Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports)

@Keithlaw (Keith law, baseball blogger)

@SethDavisHoops (Seth Davis, College BB)

@JonHeymanCBS (Jon Heyman, baseball writer)

@Buster_ESPN (Buster Olney, Baseball ESPN)

@JohnHollinger (John Hollinger, ESPN NBA)

@Franfraschilla (Fran Fraschilla, ESPN CBB)

@DraftExpress (CBB & NBA Draft Player evaluation)

@Chadfordinsider (Chad Ford, NBA Draft)

Websites Where I Get Numbers:

Hoopshype.com/salaries

Basketball-reference.com

Baseball-reference.com

Football-reference.com

John Hollinger PER (http://tinyurl.com/npy3e)

The final question, where do I get my inspiration? Well, since I try (often unsuccessfully) to blog from a GM's perspective, I mostly just try to stay in contact with the news, and think of my ideas from there. For the people that I know: I am always open to ideas of things to write about, and I can never have enough ideas. The more ideas I have, the more I can write! Hope that some of these websites and blogs and Twitterers are helpful! Let me know what you think.