NFL Preview: NFC

The second half of my 2012 NFL Preview...much better than the first half...somehow.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

            What can you really say about the Packers? Their offense is amazing, and their defense isn’t. If the defense can put some pressure on the quarterback, the secondary wouldn’t look quite so horrendous. Remember, they gave up almost 5,000 yards in the air in 2011. However, this is a team with Aaron Rodgers, so they will probably be just fine.

Detroit Lions

            The Lions are like the Packers 2.0. Their secondary couldn’t stop anybody, and their D-line didn’t really put up the sack numbers that most predicted they would. Megatron and Stafford will put up huge numbers, but when you are in a shootout every week, you are bound to lose some.

Chicago Bears

            Chicago fans (I would guess) are very bullish on their offense this year. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and healthy Forte and Cutler could be a pretty nice set of tools. However, the word healthy and NFL often do not go together very well. The defense should be top 10 in the league, and I think they can challenge for a wild card spot this year.

Minnesota Vikings

            The point of this season is just to prove to everyone that Adrian Peterson is a superhuman. You can put him down, but only for a bit. As AP comes back from this ACL tear, it is important to remember that the Vikings are starting a second year QB and that you shouldn’t expect them to be too much better than last years 3-13, maybe 5-12 or so.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

            Quick, which team in the NFL has the kind of leader on offense that can successfully deal with the suspension of a head coach for the entire season? I would like to submit the Saints as one of those teams. They will surely suffer some because of Sean Peytons suspension, but Drew Brees should be able to keep this offense in the upper echelon of the NFL. The Saints are also hoping that Curtis Lofton can bring them some added toughness against the run.

Atlanta Falcons

            Speaking of Lofton, he left this team, but the middle linebacker who is replacing him should do just fine. Sean Weatherspoon is a rising star in the league, and he should fill that leadership void. On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones and Roddy White should help ensure that the middle of the field is open, as they streak up the sidelines play after play. Perhaps this is the year that Matt Ryan joins the NFL elite?

Carolina Panthers

            Speaking of elite (I love segways), the Panther’s running game should be the leagues best in 2012. With a 3 headed RB attack (Williams, Stewart, Tolbert) and the runningest QB from last year, the Panther’s offense should be something to behold on the ground. As the running game stays strong, the Panthers also hope to see an improved Cam Newton. It is very possible that his statistics fall a little bit this year, but the Panther’s brass are hoping that the INT’s fall as well. Oh, and they can’t put pressure on the QB. Need to fix that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            The Bucs spent a little bit of money this offseason to help stretch the field. Vincent Jackson should be a nice option for Josh Freeman as he seeks to prove that he is a legitimate starting quarterback, and the addition of rookie RB Doug Martin can’t hurt either, as he can catch some balls out of the backfield. My biggest concern for this team is, much like the Panthers, their inability to get D-line penetration. Their big defensive investments from the last few drafts haven’t really paid dividends yet.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

            I just drafted Michael Vick in 3 of 4 fantasy football leagues, and I am very afraid. The guy has played 2 series in the preseason so far, and has gotten injured both times. If he can stay healthy, the Super Bowl is not too optimistic of a prediction. This team has it all. Offensive dynamos, defensive stalwarts, health is really their biggest question.

Dallas Cowboys

            Its always been about performance for Jerry Jones. He will pay for it, draft it, whatever. This season, it looks like his defense could finally be scary. The pass defense is much improved, and any team with Demarcus Ware is going to pressure the QB. BUT, as always, everything hinges on the QB. If Romo can utilize his weapons, this can be a playoff team.

New York Giants

            Call me crazy, but I see a slight dropoff for the Giants. Meaning, I don’t think they win the Super Bowl. Now, I should probably have them above the Cowboys, but I am going out on a limb and saying that the Giants miss the playoffs altogether this year. There are a lot of good teams in the NFC, and somebody has to lose.

Washington Redskins

            Just like in Indy, Washington is focused on their brand new baby, Robert Griffin III. Everyone who talks to this young man really likes him, and they will LOVE him is he can bring his athleticism and intelligence together and win some football games. The outside LB combo of Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan really help this defense as they swarm the pocket on every play.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

            Its nice when a team that sucks can suddenly become a team that wins. Mike Singletary couldn’t do it, but mean old Mr. Harbaugh has brought this team to a great place. The Defense is so good its inappropriate, and the offense was really well managed last year. (All of my “ifs” involve quarterbacks it seems) IF Alex Smith can air it out just a little more, while still not turning the ball over, the 49’ers should be right back at the top of the league.

Seattle Seahawks

            This is a team that is headed in the right direction. They have a young and exciting defense, led by Eric Thomas as the SS position, and they have a shiny new quarterback that they think will be really good. (There is discussion about whether that QB is Russel Wilson or Matt Flynn though) This team will still struggle to beat the really good teams in the NFC, but they are heading on up.

St. Louis Rams

            Ditto for the Rams. They have zero depth at wide receiver, and their pass defense needs some work…but they are the youngest team in the NFL, and they have skill and talent at a lot of positions. Give them 2 or 3 more years of drafting well and developing, and I think they are a playoff team. But not this year.

Arizona Cardinals

            You know how people say “last but not least”? Well, that does not apply to this list. The Arizona Cardinals should be the worst team in the league by several games. I think they will match the Colts 2-14 record from last year. The Quarterback situation is a mess, the offensive line is a mess, and the defense just doesn’t have the talent to make a difference. Sorry Cards fans, but your season is going to be depressing.

That’s the end of the NFL Preview…Sheesh, that took a really long time to write, and I am very glad that it is over. Now we can ignore everything I have said, since most of it will end up being wrong anyway, and focus on what’s important: Andrew Luck, my new favorite person in the world.

AFC Preview

Well, I guess I took the summer off from writing about sports, and that may have been a good thing. There was lots of baseball to watch, lots of MLB trades to not care about, and plenty of softball to be terrible at. Very busy. But, as the new sports year is gearing up, it brings with it the excitement of football! I know way more about the NFL than I do about NCAA football, so that is where I will focus. However, be prepared for some college football posts this fall as well.

To start the fall off, here is my NFL AFC preview. The teams are listed in the order that I think they will finish within the conference. I thought about projecting records, but then I remembered that that would require math. Nevermind.

AFC

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

            It is tough for a team to stay at the top of their division when their most productive and disruptive defensive player goes down. That will be the challenge that the Ravens face this year, as Terrel Suggs rehabs from a torn ACL. It will be up to the slimmer Ray Lewis and the rest of the Baltimore LBs to replace that production. The Ravens do still have one of the best running backs in football in Ray Rice, and Joe Flacco is back to his yearly routine of looking really good in training camp.

Pittsburgh Steelers

            For the Steelers, very little changes year to year. The offense will look very similar, although it will perhaps be without speedster Mike Wallace as he looks for a new contract. And the defense will be as annoying and stifling as ever. Although the older players on this Steeler’s defense are getting a bit gray haired, don’t expect their production to drop at all this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

            The Bengals are trying to build on a surprisingly successful 2011, where Andy Dalton grabbed the reigns at QB and A.J. Green looked like a superstar at wideout. The defense has added a couple of strong contributors, including a couple of starters at CB. This team probably can’t compete with Baltimore and Pittsburgh at the top of the division, but they will be entertaining to watch.

Cleveland Browns

            I hope the Browns like having high draft picks! I loved the 2011 Cleveland draft class, as Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson should both start and contribute mightily. However, there are too many holes on this roster for them to compete, although the defense could be SLIGHTLY improved this year.

AFC South

Houston Texans

            With the Texans, the questions on offense are all about health. If healthy, this team has a top 3 RB, a top 3 WR, and a top 12 (ish) QB. If Foster, Johnson, and Schaub can finish a season together, this could be a very dangerous team. On defense, they have lost some of their cornerstones, but the roster is deep and should adjust well to the losses.

Tennessee Titans

            The grizzled veteran versus the unpolished youngster. Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck will battle for the starting job this year, and if Locker wins the job, expect a more downfield offense. Chris Johnson returns from a full offseason of work, so should see his production tick upwards as well. Tennessee’s defense is very middle of the pack, so a slight increase or decrease in effectiveness should not be surprising. They need to work more on the run D than the passing defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

            MJD, he of the very muscular body, is holding out for more money. If you remember, Chris Johnson held out last year, then had a tough time regaining his former brilliance. If MJD misses all of the preseason, this team could be absolutely horrendous to watch. Blaine Gabbert had a lot of growing pains last year, and the Jags have to be praying he shows some positive growth during the 2012 season.

Indianapolis Colts

            As a Colts fan, you have to be excited for the youth at QB. Unfortunately, other than Andrew Luck, the recognizable faces of this franchise are all on the backsides of their career. Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are all incredibly talented players. However, it would be naïve to see expect any of these players to still be playing in 4 or 5 years. The Colts will try to groom their youth and draft well again next year.

AFC East

New England Patriots

            How do you make an offense with Tom Brady, Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski even scarier? Add Brandon Lloyd to it! The speedy wide receiver will make the Pats offense even harder to stop this year. To me, there are no questions about this team regressing, its just how much other teams progress.

Buffalo Bills

            Case in point for progression, the Bills. They added the scariest defensive end on the market in Mario Williams, and he should help make their defensive front very sturdy. If the Bills offense, and especially their quarterback, can find some consistency, they really should challenge for a Wild Card spot in the AFC

New York Jets

            When the most interesting thing that has happened in a while is that your 2^nd string QB took a rainy job with no shirt on, you know that NY will try to spice it up. Camp brawl anyone? If the Jets can get to the regular season without hurting anyone, I still have a hard time imagining them improving much with Mark Sanchez at the helm. I have never been a big fan, and I don’t think Tebow can steer this team to the promised land either. Oh, Revis island decided not to hold out, so that is good.

Miami Dolphins

            I don’t know about you, but I am overjoyed that Chad Ochocinco got cut from the Dolphins this week. He can’t produce anymore, and he is a constant distraction for a team that is seriously trying to get better. And the Dolphins are doing that. Reggie Bush showed last year that he can be a feature back, and the pass rush should provide the defense something to build on.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

            As you can see, I have the Broncos finishing at the top of this division. Care to guess why? Peyton Manning, that’s why. The Broncos ran the ball really well last year, even without a threat of throwing the ball. If you add in the respect that Manning will bring to the passing game, the runners should have a lot more space to work with this year. Like a lot of teams, Denver needs to improve its secondary, but their pass rush should be very effective.

San Diego Chargers

            The Chargers just can’t seem to shake the injury bug. Ryan Matthews and Vincent Brown will both be out for several weeks, although Matthews hopes to be back by Week 1 or 2. The success of this team largely rides on Philip Rivers. He needs to have a bounce-back year after he threw 20 interceptions last year.

Kansas City Chiefs

            The Chiefs are pretty scary on the offensive side of the ball. They have plenty of playmakers with Charles, Bowe and McCluster all on the field together. If Tamba Hali can get back on the field from his suspension and be effective, the defense will be just fine too, as Eric Berry comes back from injury to bolster the secondary.

Oakland Raiders

            Oakland fans are excited and probably a bit sad about their first full season without crazy man/owner Al Davis. However, the team is full of athletes that he drafted, and they have some optimism as they are relatively healthy this preseason. If Darren McFadden can stay on his feet for 16 weeks, the Raiders could move into the top 2 of this division. They have that kind of offensive talent.

Man Crush: Andrew Luck

I don't know if you heard, but Andrew Luck played football yesterday. The Colts had their first preseason game against the St. Louis Rams, and Lucks line was as follows:

10-16, 188 yds, 2 TD, 1 rush for 9 yds (3 total touchdown drives)

I think a couple things really stood out to me as I watched.

1. He looks good running the offense. Now, he didn't audible at the line of scrimmage or call his own plays, but he did at least use a snap count a couple of times, and he got the ball where it needed to go. He made good decisions overall, and obviously did not turn the ball over.

2. His throwing mechanics are impeccable. From his feet, to his head, to his arm, Luck looks like a model when he throws the ball. His 2nd touchdown was a 23 yard strike to Austin Collie in the endzone. He threw the ball hard, with a perfect spiral, and it went exactly where it should. I read one blogger who thought that Peyton Manning could not make that throw with that velocity at this point. Very interesting.

However this works out, there is some positivity in Nap-town today, and we are all happy that the Colts got another goofy looking QB to replace their last goofy looking QB.

Dwight Howard Trade Analysis

I wish we could call this the Andre Iguodala trade, or even the Moe Harkless trade, but the honest truth is that every single one of these players has Dwight Howard to thank for their new home. Lets take a look at each of these four teams, what they gained and lost, and how they will improve or worsen in the coming season.

(All info take from John Hollinger @ ESPN.com)

1. The Lakers give up Andrew Bynum and a protected 2017 first-round pick, and receive Howard.

The Lakers are obvious reasons here. They got the best center in basketball, and they didn’t have to give up the most well rounded power forward in the game to do it. Humongous deal. Can you imagine this team? Kobe, Nash, Howard, Gasol, and World Peace? That is a fantastic starting lineup. The Lakers are definitely right back up in title contention this year.

2. The Nuggets give up Arron Aflalo, Al Harrington and a protected first-round pick, and receive Andre Iguodala.

I actually really like this trade for the Nuggets as well. Big Al is past his prime, and Afflalo is probably making more money than he is worth. Iguodala fits in really well with the fat pace that George Karl likes to use, and his defensive ability can make a real differene with this team. He will probably play the 3, with Danilo Galinari playing the 2. This team probably wasn’t please to see the Lakers get better, but they improved themselves this season and beyond.

3. The Sixers give up Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless and a protected first-round pick that can be no earlier than 2015, and receive Bynum and Jason Richardson.

Philadelphia hasn’t had a really good post player since…Moses Malone? Derrick Coleman? (haha) anyway, I am sure that they jumped on this chance to acquire Andrew Bynum. He will absolutely anchor this team, and allow their preassure defense to be even more intense.

4. The Magic give up Howard and Richardson, and receive Afflalo, Harrington, Vucevic, Harkless and the three protected first-round picks mentioned above.

The Magic are not improved through this trade. We all knew that would happen, it was all about getting better in the future. Only time will tell if this trade helps in that regard. The first round picks are all lottery protected, so they will have to draft really well for them to matter. I am a fan of Moe Harkless, and Vucevic played some decent minutes for Philly last year. However, these players are both young, and they join a Magic team that looks to lose a lot of games this year.

Well, Dwight Howard got what he wanted. We will have to see if he actually re-signs with the Lakers after this season, or if he ditches the West coast and heads back to Atlanta, his childhood home. Either way, blockbuster trades always make the coming season more interesting, and the Lakers will be must see tv all season.