Does Conference Play Matter?

One question has been rolling around in my mind. And no, it is not Is Eli a better quarterback than Peyton? Although that question will haunt me for all of my days, I have different fish to fry today.

My question is: When a GM is looking at drafting a player, how much do they take the conference that they play for into consideration? How much of the production must be taken with a grain of salt because of the team or conference that a player is associated with? I do think there are different answers to this question for different sports.

MLB: Obviously, when you are drafting a player, you want to look at how they perform is pressure situations, and you want to see how they perform over the entirety of their college/high school career. In baseball, I think that individual performance and career numbers and potential play a bigger part than the conference a player participated in. Baseball puts more emphasis on potential and development than any other major American sport, so they look at a kids arm strength, or the way he could add muscle to his frame and still be an athlete. I don’t think MLB front offices care quite as much about level of competition as the NBA and NFL. (If you don't know much about the MLB Minors, take a look at Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects article on ESPN.com http://tinyurl.com/76o93rw)

NFL: In direct contrast, I think there is a major “conference bias” in the NFL. It may be warranted, but the SEC is seen as the conference where the best athletes come from, and the Big Ten is where you get solid offensive linemen. I wonder if these biases hold any weight, and I do think there is an argument that the best conferences attract the best talent. However, I think that football is a game where success is based enormously on the quality and performance of the rest of your teammates. So, sometimes a General Manager must consider how a player would perform on a worse team, or in a situation where the player would have filled a different role, before they decide that player is a good fit for their team.

NBA: Thankfully, the NBA is somewhere in between. Much like baseball, the NBA drafts players based on potential. Jimmer Fredette scored 28 ppg in college, yet he was not this first pick in the draft because he didn't have the most potential. For those players with potential, t is amazing how much of a transformation, both physically and in their game, takes place in the summer before a player's first NBA season. Players who show a bad attitude, or a poor competitive spirit will be drafted high because of their athletic ability or possible production. Players like Dwight Howard get drafted not because their skills are refined and they are ready to dominate, but because they have the potential to dominate for many years once they develop.

I don’t know how GM’s really look at the quality of competition of the players that they draft, but I know it should at least enter into their minds. A wunderkind putting up amazing numbers against St. Mary’s School of the Blind isn’t as impressive as modest numbers against top competition.

Thoughts? Potential over production or vice versa?

GM's Dream Machine

One of the articles that I really look forward to reading every year on SI.com is the Seth Davis’ Jigsaw Man article. In this article, he looks at 15 college basketball teams and fills a roster need with a player from another team. I enjoy this premise so much that I am going to attempt to do the same, except that I am going to focus on the NBA, not the college.

A few ground rules:

1.     I cannot move top tier superstars.

2.     Salary and contract are not an issue

3.     This is not a trade, it is a steal. Therefore, I get to do anything that I want, and I will not consider the feelings of the teams I am stealing from.

So, without further ado, here are my top 5 NBA Title contenders from each conference, and the players that would help make them more complete.

Western Conference

1.     Oklahoma City Thunder

To me, the biggest need that the Thunder have is a low post scorer. They will post Kendrick Perkins up once in a while for fun, but he is not a consistent threat. Serge Ibaka is a great athlete, but he is more of a leaper than a banger, and he also prefers to work in the midrange, not with his back to the basket. To fill this hole, I give them Roy Hibbert of the Indiana Pacers. Hibbert would fill a huge post scoring hole, and he also provides a decent defensive presence. This addition would absolutely take the Thunder to the Western Conference Finals at the least.

2.     Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have a pretty thin roster, but more than anything this team needs a point guard capable of penetrating for scores, and passing the ball to the Big Three (West Coast Edition). Derek Fisher is older than David Stern, and although he can still hit an open jump shot, he cannot guard the newest generation of NBA point guards, nor can he get past them on offense. I give the Lakers: Rodrigue Beaubois from the former NBA Champ Dallas Mavericks. This young man would be a perfect fit for the Lakers. He is an athletic, scoring guard who can pass the ball reasonably well. He would make Kobe and Pau’s lives so much easier over the course of a season.

3.     Los Angeles Clippers

Considering the needs of the Clippers, anyone can see that they suffer from the lack of large men to protect the paint. Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin are great players, but they cannot play 40 minutes a night, no matter how young they are. Samuel Dalembert would do a great job of protecting the rim while Jordan is resting, and he can also hit a jumper or two while Griffin is on the pine. Houston’s loss is the Clippers gain in this unfortunate scenario.

4.     Denver Nuggets

Hmm….What does the fastest paced NBA team in the league need? How about a guard that has consistent NBA 3 point range. Al Harrington can hit 3’s like a champ, but he is a PF. Arron Afflolo and Rudy Fernandez have both been underwhelming this season, especially from outside the arc. Anthony Morrow would do a great job of filling out that wing-off-the-bench role. He would come in and run the court, slash to the basket and hit threes. A definite offensive plus.

5.     Utah Jazz

The Jazz are one of the most inside-out focused teams in the league. Both Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap are fantastic low post scorers, and the focus of this team is to get them the ball. Unfortunately, sometimes getting them the ball can be a problem. Devin Harris is a slashing point guard, not a spot up shooter, so we are going to decimate the Clippers and take their starting shooting guard Chauncey Billups. Billups understands how to hit an open three, and there will be plenty of those available in this offense. Mr. Big Shot would also fit the tough attitude that this team embodies.

Eastern Conference

1.     Miami Heat

It is obvious that this team doesn’t need any more playmakers. Dwayne Wade and Lebron handle those responsibilities quite well. However, quite like the Thunder, they have no inside banger to take some of the “heat” off of Lebron and Dwayne. One team’s loss is another team’s gain, as the Heat will swipe Elton Brand from the Philadelphia 76’ers. He is an inside scorer who has contributed well inside the paint, and would free up Bosh for even more mid-range jumpers.

2.     Chicago Bulls

This team needs some scoring off the bench that doesn’t need to come off of a screen to get open. Kyle Korver is great, but he cannot create his own shot. JR Smith would be a wonderful pickup for this team. As soon as his season is finished in China, Smith would bring scoring punch and creativity off of the bench in Chicago.

3.     Philadelphia 76’ers

This is a young and exciting team. The 76’ers get up and down the floor, turn other teams over, and are generally fun to watch.  However, they need a shot blocker. During the best of times, Spencer Hawes isn’t intimidating anyone under the basket, although he is having a breakout season. The addition of Tyrus Thomas, who has had a 9 block game this year, would help to add some athleticism in the frontcourt and keep this team playing exciting basketball.

4.     Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are a team that has been built from the ground up. They are a ground and pound kind of team, and are one of the better teams in the entire Eastern Conference this season, However, if they lack one thing, it would be size off of the bench. Tyler Hansborough isn’t intimidating NBA size players. Neither is Lou Amundson. This team needs some bulk on the bench to back up Roy Hibbert. Now, if you haven’t been watching the Denver Nuggets, you may not think much of Timofey Mozgov, but the young man is playing great basketball right now. He can protect the rim, rebound, and is showing an increased ability to finish inside. He would be a great addition for now and the future for the Pacers.

5.     Orlando Magic

I couldn’t help myself. The best thing that the Magic could do this season is not acquire another player. They need to trade Dwight Howard. The dude has one foot out of the door already, and the Magic cannot afford to give him up for nothing. For this scenario, I think the Lakers will trade everyone but the stadium employees to get Howard with Kobe for a final title run or three. Pull the trigger Otis. Don’t let Dwight Howard walk out for nothing like Shaq did!

Well, those are my picks to improve NBA title contenders. Let me know what you think, and who you wish your team could add.

NBA Player Games Played

A thought struck me on the way home from work recently. Dwayne Wade was sitting out the 4^th of 4 games for the Heat because of an ankle injury and Carmelo Anthony had just announced that he was sitting for a couple of games to rest various and sundry injuries as well. My thought was: Out of the 2003 draft class(Especially the top 5 picks) who is playing the most games, thereby providing the toughness and longevity that teams crave?

The 2003 NBA draft went as follows:

1. Lebron James

2. Darko Milicic

3. Carmelo Anthony

4. Chris Bosh

5. Dwayne Wade

The rest of the draft is not important to us, and neither is the 2^nd pick, although it ultimately changed the course of the Detroit Pistons for a very long time.

Since the 2003 NBA draft, there have been 8 seasons and 656 Regular season games before the 18 or so games that have been played this 2012 season. Here are the amount of games played by each of those top 4 players in that time period:

1. Lebron James: 646/656

2. Carmelo Anthony: 608/656

3. Chris Bosh: 606/656

4. Dwayne Wade: 558/656

Ok, so here is the question. Assuming all of these players had the same amount of skill/leadership/intangibles(Which they obviously do not in real life), which player would you want as a GM? Obviously, the answer is the player that plays in the most games, thereby contributing the most by default. I think it is important for a GM to look at injury history and games played vs possible games. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if they miss 30% of your team’s games every season, he is less valuable than a less skilled player that plays 100% of the time…perhaps.

It is definitely a question worth considering. I think it also points to the added benefit of genetic “freak”ness. Consider Dwight Howard and Lebron James. It can be argued that there are better athletes in the NBA (by a hair. It is debatable), better defenders, better leaders, etc… But one thing that cannot be argued is that their physiques are second to none. The broad shoulder and overall burliness of these tow players, mixed with their obvious athletic and competitive gifts, make them less susceptible to injuries than other players of their generation. These players don’t necessarily play smarter or more conservatively than other players, their bodies are just built to withstand injury and allow them to play through pain.

So, as a GM, we should be careful to give huge contracts to players with a well documented history of missing games. Greg Oden obviously comes to mind, as do Andrew Bynum, Andrew Bogut, Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady. Just be mindful of these players, as the potential value added may be offset by amount of time missed.

Your thoughts?

Super Bowl 46 Preview

SuperBowl XLVI (46)

Yuck.

I hate this Superbowl.

As a lifelong Indianapolis Colts fan, this is literally my worst scenario for a championship game ever. Not only is Peyton’s little brother playing for his second Super Bowl ring, and not only are the super-annoying Patriots playing for their 4^th ring with Tom Brady, but all of this crap is going on in Indianapolis, in Lucas Oil stadium. Talk about awful situation.

However, my personal biases aside, I think this is going to be a really good game. I am sure that people will make comparisons to the last Super Bowl that these two teams played in, where Brady was massacred by the superior defensive line of the Giants, and Eli Manning had to get the David Tyree “Miracle Catch” to pull off the upset and topple the previously undefeated Patriots. I would not be past making some of those comparisons myself. However, 4 years is a long time, and these two teams are very different than they were. Lets just take a look at the individual positions, and we will see which team (In my humble opinion) has the better edge.

QB: I wish I could say that Tom Brady absolutely blows Eli Manning out of the water in this category. I am sure that Patriot fans would say that he does, and I would agree with them if we were looking at entire careers worth of statistics. However, Eli Manning is the hottest QB in the league right now, as he has brought his team to this point almost entirely through his own will. Still, Tom Brady is one of the best passers that the NFL has ever seen, he is cool in the clutch (although so is Eli), and he knows how to win big games. Edge: Patriots

RB: Yes, the law firm of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis scores a lot of 1 yard touchdowns and had a decent week against the Ravens, but I think that the Giants have more potential in their running game. Bradshaw and Jacobs can be very effective on the ground, especially if Eli can get the passing game moving effectively early in the game. Edge: Giants

WR: This comparison isn’t even close. The only effective WR on the Patriots this season was Wes Welker. Dion Branch will catch a pass from time to time, but he is not a game-changing type of wideout. On the other hand, the Giants have one of the more effective groups of wide receivers in the NFL. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have had great seasons, and Mario Manningham had a huge TD catch against the 49’ers last week. Huge mismatch. Edge: Giants

TE: As lopsided as the WR’s were for the Giants, the TE match is even more heavily weighted the Patriots direction. Gronkowski and Hernandez are the 1^st pair of TE’s to catch as many passes for as many yards and as many TD’s in one season EVER. I think that tips the scales in their favor, especially when I don’t even know the names of the Giant TE’s. Edge: Patriots

O-line: The Patriots Offensive line has been together for years, and has widely been hailed as one of the best in the league. The Giants offensive line let Eli Manning be sacked 6 times, knocked down 10 other times, and generally made him scramble all over the world against the 49’ers. Edge: Patriots

D-line: The Giants defensive line features a bunch of physical freaks. Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Matthias Kiwanuka may be the only entire defensive line with very well known names. They pressure the quarterback, and do a decent job against the run game. The Patriots defensive line, on the other hand, has some mammoths. They don’t rush the passer as well as the Giants, but they are more consistently in position to make plays against the run. Vince Wilfork may have played the best game of his career against the Ravens, and this line has been hot for the past 3 weeks. Edge: Even

Linebackers: Both of these units are relative unknowns, especially when compared against other parts of the defense, but both units are solid. Jerod Mayo is a solid general for the Patriots defense, and the Giants linebackers, especially Michael Boley, are an improving group. Edge: Patriots

Secondary: Really, both of these units are going to get lit up on Super Bowl Sunday. With the effectiveness of these two teams passing attacks, there are going to be a lot of tackles in the secondary, but lots of yards given up as well. The depth of the Patriots secondary is a little suspect, as kick returner and WR Julian Edelman plays cornerback in nickel and dime situations. The Giants have better safeties, with Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips shoring up the deep parts of the field. (To be honest, I think both units are sub-par, however we do have to have a verdict so…) Edge: Giants

Coaching: Should we even do this? Tom Coughlin is annualy on the hot seat, and Bill Belichick is one of the top 5 best coaches ever. Edge: Patriots

Prediction: Going back to my feelings for this game, I really hope that both teams somehow find a way to lose, and I really really hope this game isn’t decided on a last second field goal. Those make me so mad. My pick is the Patriots in a close game, winning by a score of 27-24. But I still kinda hope I’m wrong.

Who is your pick?

The Prince of Detroit

So, what is the smartest thing to do when your team already has an overweight, defensively challenged, hard hitting first basemen? Obviously, sign another overweight, defensively challenged, hard hitting first baseman! I kid, I kid, but the signing of Prince Fielder by the Detroit Tigers is one of the biggest surprise signings of the off-season, right behind the Albert Pujols to the Angels deal.

As a GM, why would you overload your team at first base, when both players have a reasonably similar skill set? Lets compare the numbers of Prince Fielder and current Tigerts 1B Miguel Cabrera:

Fielder: .299 BA, .415 OBP, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 106/107 K/BB, 5.2 WAR (wins above replacement)

Cabrera: .344 BA, .448 OBP, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 89/108 K/BB, 7.1 WAR

I think the most important thing to notice about these statistics is not that Fielder hit more homeruns, or that Cabrera led the AL in batting average and on base percentage, or that both players posted a very impressive WAR. The most important thing to note is that both of these players are preeminent offensive players in Major League Baseball. Both Cabrera and Fielder absolutely hit the stuffing off of the baseball in the 2011 season.

To me, as a GM, the question of redundancy at the position is moot. If you have one awesome player and have the opportunity to add another, and you can afford it without crippling your team, why not go ahead and do it? There are a couple of options to get Cabrera and Fielder in the lineup every day. Cabrera can go back to 3B, or one of the two players can DH each day. The only real trouble comes in the 2013 season, when Victor Martinez returns from an ACL tear. He will not be able to catch every day, so he will need the DH spot at least once in a while, which may determine that Cabrera move back to 3B no matter what.

I predict that the Detroit Tigers are one of the most well attended teams in the coming season. Combining the gregarious personality of Prince Fielder with the talent of Miguel Cabrera and the Cy Young caliber pitching of Justin Verlander will make the Tigers a threat to win the World Series in the coming year.

But what do you think? Will Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera be able to work well together? Will the Tigers regret a 9 year, 212 Million dollar contract for a player who is very durable, but still plays around 250 lbs or more? Only time will tell.

Max Contracts and Roster Space

5 years and $80 Million for Russell Westbrook (16 per year)

5 years and $91 Million for Kevin Durant (16, 17, 18, 19, 21 per year)

Today my question is, as a GM or an Owner of an NBA franchise, can you afford to have 2 max contract players on your team?

First, we have to give some kudos to Russell Westbrook. If he had waited until the end of the season to sign this extension, then the new Rose Rules under the brand spankin’ new CBA would have allowed him to make a bit more money over the life of the contract, so he saved the Thunder a few million dollars over the long run. Good for him.

However, lets consider that the salary cap for the 2011-2012 season is at $58.044 Million dollars. On average, that means that these two players will be taking up slightly more than 50% of the teams available cap room. Lets also assume for a second that James Harden continues his upward trend into the lower echelons of stardom. He would probably be worth 10-12 million dollars a season, so suddenly you have 3 players taking up over $40 million dollars of your cap room every season, which is two thirds of it, even if the cap is raised to $60 million next year.

As an owner, it takes a lot of faith in these players, belief that they will be able to make a return on your huge investment, bring in fans, win games, and sell merchandise.

As a GM, you are depending on these three players to be the leaders of your team for the next 5 years. You are banking on them improving every year, continuing to work hard, and engaging your city. You are depending on them to work with less talent beside them, and to pull more of the responsibility for winning.

As a fellow player, the expectations are interesting. Any player that would want to play on this team, especially if they were in the same tier as James Harden, would have to take a pretty large pay cut to play with the Thunder. Are players willing to do this? I think the current NBA landscape is showing that they are, as players are trying to piggyback on the most talented members of the basketball community in order to win championships.

Like most columns, I end this one returning to the original question: Would you be willing to have 2 max contract players on your team, or would it limit financial flexibility too much? This is a question that teams like New York and the LA Clippers seem to have answered, and one that Dwight Howard's new team will have to consider as well.

2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft

One of the only areas in my life where I actually have a bit of concrete knowledge is in the NBA draft. I constantly read draft blogs, and watch college basketball games, and look at NBA Mock Drafts. I feel like I have an understanding of who is talented for real, and who is a poser. (Ryan Leaf style)

So here are the 14 worst teams in the NBA right now, according to record, and the picks that they should make in the upcoming 2012 NBA Draft.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers

Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

This young man is a terrific athlete and a terrific shooter. Like many great shooters who can jump out of the gym, Ross needs to work on his handle and his decision-making. Those faults non-withstanding, The Cavs would have a pretty terrific potential in their back court if they put Ross on Kyrie Irving’s wing.

13. New York Knicks* (At the moment, the Knicks are in the 8^th spot in the Eastern Conference, with the Celtics and Bucks being the next 2 teams below them. So, one of these three teams will not be a lottery team, and one team out west probably will be. That team will either be Houston or Memphis)

Austin Rivers, SG, Duke University

I don’t know if the Knicks would be brave enough to do this, but I think that Rivers could be an interesting pick for them. Something in the back of my head tells me that Rivers will go back to Duke for a Sophomore season, but if he declares, the Knicks would love to have a shooter/slasher in the backcourt to pair with Iman Shumpert and whatever real point guard they have by this time.

12. Golden State Warriors

John Henson, PF, University of North Carolina

Man, it seems like the Warriors keep drafting players, and they still have no one on their team. Stephen Curry and Ekpe Udoh, their two most recent recognizable picks, have been hampered by injuries, or in Udoh’s case, hampered by a much higher paid player starting in front of them. I see them adding a quality shot blocker and improving jump shooter in Henson to add some defensive depth to Mark Jackson’s team.

11. New Orleans Hornets (via Timberwolves.)

Tyler Zeller, C, University of North Carolina

Now, there are better prospects than Zeller on the board at this point, but in my opinion Meyers Leonard (the best center prospect after Drummond) will probably go back to school at Illinois for one more year, and picking John Henson is kind of redundant wen you picked a lanky forward earlier in the draft. So, assuming that any NBA GM has a decent amount of common sense, the Hornets will choose to add a proven low post scorer who will gain weight and be a solid 14-10 center for their team. (whenever one of the smartest men in basketball, Emeka Okafor, retires)

10. Boston Celtics

Terrence Jones, PF, University of Kentucky

This young man chose to go back to school for his sophomore year, and so far it has appeared to be a bad choice. He is being overshadowed by freshman on a team where he should have taken the reigns from the get-go. However, he is a diversified scorer who can work in the post or on the perimeter, and the Celtics desperately need someone who can play basketball without breaking. Jones can do that.

9. Milwaukee Bucks

Bradley Beal, SG, University of Florida

Somehow, the Bucks constantly need wing scorers no matter what they do. Brad Beal may be the best shooter in this class, and he projects to look a lot like Ray Allen in a few years. His form is impeccable, he can slash and create, and he can pass out of a double team if needed.

8. Phoenix Suns

Jeremy Lamb, SF, University of Connecticut

Grant Hill is officially over the hill as an athletic wing scorer. The Suns will need a new creator from the wing position who can score on his own and knock down open jumpers. Lamb fills both of those needs, and he brings a very focused demeanor on the court. He is not flashy, but he always gets the job done.

7. Toronto Raptors

Michael Gilchrist, SF, University of Kentucky

The new look Raptors under Dwayne Casey are focused on defense. There is no better wing defender in college basketball than Gilchrist. He gives 100% effort 100% of the time, and can regularly be depended upon to shut down the other teams best scorer. He may never develop into a 20 ppg scorer, but he will be a serviceable wing scorer for a long time.

6. Sacramento Kings

Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas University

Unlike the Pistons, the Kings are set at center for as long as they can keep Demarcus Cousins happy. However, they could use a bull-headed power forward who can hit jumpers and rebounds like a monster. Thomas Robinson will probably win the NCAA POY award this year, and he will bring a hard working and team oriented attitude to the Kings, who desperately need someone who will pass the ball once in a while.

5. New Orleans Hornets

Perry Jones, PF, Baylor University

The New Orleans Hornets have needs all over the board, except for maybe shooting guard and backup point guard (Jarret Jack). So, I think they go with the player dripping with upside in Perry Jones. He is a 6’11” lanky kid who can dribble, pass, shoot, and score down low. He is athletic and, I think, is developing a better idea of how to assert himself. I think he grows into a great player.

4. Detroit Pistons

Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State University

I am not a huge fan of this pick either. The Pistons already have one big man who can’t protect the rim in Greg Monroe, so I am not sure if they need another ground-bound big man. However, they can’t pass up the opportunity to shore up their frontline for the next 10+ years, so they pick up Sullinger.

3. New Jersey Nets

Andre Drummond, C, Univeristy of Connecticut

The Nets are presented with a conundrum in this spot. They already have a center in Brook Lopez, and they are one of 4 teams on Dwight Howard’s trade list. Do they really need another center? I would argue, yes. Drummond is the best center prospect to be available since Greg Oden (Who really was talented and awesome, just couldn’t begin to get healthy). I propose that the Nets save some money on Dwight Howard and groom the next dominant big man in Drummond.

2. Charlotte Bobcats

Harrison Barnes, SF, University of North Carolina

My first thought was to put Andre Drummond in this spot, but the 'Cats just picked Bismack Biyombo last year, and they are very excited about him in the middle of the lane. So....As much as I disagree, draft experts across the country agree that Harrison Barnes will be the best wing scorer to come out of this class. I think that Barnes isn’t explosive or assertive enough, but I am just an amateur and it seems that the entire basketball blogosphere disagrees with me. The Bobcats desperately need an athletic wing player who can create, and that is what Barnes is projected to become.

1. Washington Wizards

Anthony Davis, PF, University of Kentucky

This young man is loooooooong. That is really all you can say about Anthony Davis. He leads college basketball in blocked shots, with excellent timing and helicopter-long arms. He is 6’10” tall, has tons of room to get stronger, and has guard skills to boot. The Wizards would do well to kick Andray Blatche to the curb and let Davis fill his spot on the roster.

One final note: This Mock Drafting stuff is harder than it looks. If I got three or more of these picks correct, I would be absolutely ecstatic! Factoring in team needs (my opinion of them anyway) and player projections and pairing them together to make an informed decision is difficult. There are still some of the top 20 prospects that I don’t know enough about, like Terrence Ross from UW, or Adonis Thomas from Memphis. Oh well, this was very enjoyable, and I welcome your comments.