Monday, June 11, 2012

GM Finals Perspective

So, it is down to the Thunder and the Heat. Good vs Evil, Durant vs. Lebron, Perkins vs. Turiaf (Maybe not). This is set up to be one of the most exciting NBA Finals that we have seen in a long time. Game 7 of the Heat v Celtics series was the most watched basketball game on cable television EVER. That means good things for the NBA, and it especially means good things for the Finals.

I don't want to spend too much time talking about the actual series, but I do want to spend a little bit of time talking about the differences between the two teams. From a General Manager's perspective, these teams couldn't be more different.

The Miami Heat were forged through money. Yes, the did draft Dwayne Wade back in 2003, Mario Chalmers in 2008 and.... As far as contributing players, that is it. Haslem, Battier, Miller, Anthony, Bosh, James, all of these players were signed as free agents, or traded for over the last few years. This is a team of mercenaries in some sense. Lebron and Bosh decided that they would go to the team that they thought could win. Now, what is interesting is their salaries. All three players are making between15.6 and 16.02 Million dollars this season, practically identical salaries. The three players, Wade, James, and Bosh, decided to make about 20% less money so that they could all play on the same team. Very interesting and smart business decision by them, the idea being that they could make a ton of money and still give the Heat a little bit of room to sign veterans. Obviously, the team could still use some effective role players, but the fact that the Heat have gotten to the Finals two years in a row is kind of good.

By contrast, the Oklahoma City Thunder were forged through drafting. (And by stealing from a city in the pacific northwest). They drafted Nick Collison in 2003, Kevin Durant in 2007, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in 2008, and James Harden in 2009. That is their top 4 best players, and an incredibly valuable role player, all through the draft. You can make a very strong argument that the Thunder had the best 3 year draft ever, but you probably can't make that argument for a few years when all 3 of Durant, Westbrook and Harden are established stars. So, it is easy to see the contrast that this team makes with the Miami Heat. However, money is going to be very interesting for this team as well. Keving Durant is currently signed through 2016 for 82 Million dollars. Lots of money, but not quite a max contract. HOWEVER, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka are all going to require 10+ million dollars a year in the very near future. Ibaka made 1.2 million dollars this year. On the open market, he will require 8-10 times that money, especially if he keeps developing. Unless players take less than max deals, the Thunder are going to find themselves in the same boat as the Heat in 3 years.

As a General Manager, you don't really care how you build your team. If you are winning, bringing in fans, and making money, then it really does not matter who you drafted or hired. However, money is always going to be the biggest issue that a team can face. The NBA is a business, and other teams are going to try to headhunt and steal employees with more money, better co-workers, and better working conditions. The challenge of a GM is to identify who you can afford and who you can replace, while still putting a winning product out on the floor.

Would you rather your team drafted or bought a superstar?
Let me know.

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