Hornet's Tidbits

Sifting through NBA.com advanced team statistics, there were a few things that specifically stood out to me about this year's Hornets.

1. We are last. Dead. Last. in 3pt percentage (30.7%) The Golden State Warriors are currently leading the league at a tidy 38.9%. Now, I am not saying that we should be the Warriors, but the outside shooting of Lance Stephenson, Gary Neal, Gerald Henderson, etc...is not helping our percentages much.
2. In a related note, the Hornets shoot the largest percentage of shots in the league from 15-19 feet. Aka, the place where we shouldn't really shoot from a ton. The pull up midrange shot is Kemba's specialty, Cody's only place to shoot from, Lance's only option, and Brian Robert's running jumper range. We simply shoot too much from the least efficient spot on the floor. 18 percent of our shots come from there.
3. Our poor 3 point percentage is probably the biggest factor in the Hornets also ranking dead last in the league in True Shooting Percentage, which weights shots by their value. Obviously, that would make the three point shot more valuable than a two pointer, so you can make your own conclusions there.
4. Even with Kemba being out, the Hornets are controlling the basketball. Our Turnover Ratio of 12.2 per 100 possessions is still the lowest rate in the league. While the Hornets may look sloppy at times, they just don't hand the ball over. For some perspective, the worst Turnover Ratio is owned by the 76'ers who turn the ball over more than 19 times per 100 possessions. Ouch.

Just a couple of random thoughts as I was scrolling through some of the awesome (and free) numbers at NBA.com. Pretty fun stuff, even though many of the offensive numbers are depressing. The D numbers are much better!

The Hornets and the 2014 NBA Draft

As the Carolina Panthers lost their 2nd game of the 2013 season, it serves as a potent reminder that professional sports in Charlotte, North Carolina are not at their apex (hopefully). The Panthers and the Hornets are both winning less than local fans wish and definitely less than we had hoped for over the past few years. Local sports radio had mostly pegged the Panthers as a .500 team, and at this point, they are going to have a hard time reaching that record. This depressing beginning to the football season has turned my thoughts toward the Charlotte Bobcat/Hornets!

Confession time: I was born and raised an Indiana Hoosier. Basketball is in my blood, and is by far my favorite sport. I was beyond excited to move to the Queen City and be close to a professional team. Therefore, when you combine the local professional team with my favorite player from back home, Cody Zeller, my excitement level shot through the roof! However, I think we know that the Bobcats are not much further along in their franchise development that the Panthers, and may actually be far behind. This is a team without an identity, a team without a star player, a team without a winning culture. So, since we know that we will be in it, I would like to take a look at the next step in the Bobcats development, the 2014 NBA Draft.

First, to establish the fact that the Bobcats will in fact be one of the 14 worst teams in the NBA. Here is the list of teams that COULD be worse than Charlotte in the 2013-2014 NBA regular season: Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76’ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings. 7 teams. Even if the Bobcats out performed every team that I just listed, we would still land firmly in the top 14 picks. We just are not close to playoff contention yet. A terrible defense and inexperienced offense will assure that we get a high pick.

Second, I want to talk about why I am so excited about the 2014 Draft. It is well documented among NBA blogging circles that the 2014 draft class is one of the most talented in the last decade, and maybe the deepest draft in terms of top to bottom talent in the last 20 years. This draft is loaded. So, lets look at some of the players that could fall into the Bobcat’s lap as they transition back to the Charlotte Hornets!

Andrew Wiggins

Julius Randle

Dante Exum

Jabari Parker

Aaron Gordon

Marcus Smart

Joel Embiid

Andrew Harrison

Wayne Selden

Montrezl Harrell

Gary Harris

Dario Saric

Chris Walker

Those are 13 players. Out of those 13, there is not a single one that I would not be excited about if the Bobcats drafted them. Now, lets take a closer look at the 5 most likely picks if the Bobcats finish with their projected 4th worst record (ESPN.com)

1. Dante Exum:

Exum is a 6’6” scoring point guard from Australia. His draft stock has dramatically risen since the FIBA U19 contest, where he dominated opponents and led an overachieving team to the semifinals. The Bobcats would love a player of his ilk to play both on and off the ball, completing their backcourt of the future with Kemba Walker and MKG.

2. Jabari Parker

Parker is one of the new class of over-analyzed American high school stars. He has been a known commodity in the recruiting world for several years, and only slipped from #1 in his class when Andrew Wiggins reclassified and Julius Randle exploded. Parker is an incredibly sound small forward. He can shoot, create for others, rebound, and get to the rim. He is not an otherworldy athlete, but he is still certainly athletically gifted. The Bobcats would plug him in at the 3 and not miss a beat, whether he started over MKG or came off the bench.

3. Aaron Gordon

Blake Griffin lite will be attempting to become a small forward at Arizona this college basketball season. Gordon is incredibly bouncy, and a full effort player. His only limitation is that he is an inch or so shorter than preferable for a power forward. His shot is not a finished product, but he can dunk on the entire world at once, and would contribute to a blue-collar culture that Cody Zeller brings to the Bobcats. If he proves to be a capable 3, Gordon could be a top 3 player in this class.

4. Marcus Smart/Andrew Harrison

I mention these two only because it isn’t smart to pass on talent. Sometimes you simply grab the best player available and work with it. Kemba Walker blossomed as a sophomore, and should cement himself as a top 15 point guard this year (said as a fan!). But if choices 1, 2, and 3 are gone, Smart and Harrison are both rugged point guards who possess more natural physical talent than Walker. Both can defend point guards or shooting guards, both need to work on their jumpshots, and Smart has proven himself to have the same kind of winning mindset that Bobcats fans have come to love in Kemba Walker.

5. Joel Embiid

Rick Pitino loves this kid, and there is a lot to like. He is an athletic, 7 foot teenager who likes to dunk on people and block shots. However, I chose him to be last on my list because the Bobcats drafted one of those guys 2 years ago named Bismack Biyombo who hasn’t quite developed as hoped yet. Embiid is very gifted athletically, but he lacks and consistent offensive game. If the Bobcats drafted him, there would need to be a ton of work to develop Embiid into a consistent offensive contributor.

Those are the 5 players that I think the Bobcats are most likely to draft, unless David Stern decides to stop screwing us and give us the #1 pick overall. That would be nice.

Again, there are 13+ players in this draft that I love! The Bobcats are going to get quality with their first round pick, and possibly with the pick that we are owed from the Pistons as well. There is a lot to be excited for in #BuzzCity!

One man's trash...

Hi. I am going to write this, you are going to ignore it, but my creative needs for the next 2-3 years will have been met.

Michael Beasley: One of the best college freshman in the last 30 years, 2nd overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft by the Miami Heat...and that seems to be where the good news stops. Beasley was traded in 2010 to the Minnesota Timberwolves to clear cap room for Lebron James. In Minnesota he managed to put up good scoring numbers, but was unable to consistent in any other facet of the game. In 2012, Beasley scored a 3 year deal with the Phoenix Suns. He was subsequently cut earlier this month by the Suns for 4th (or 5th, depending on how you read the news) instance with marijuana. The Phoenix front office said that they cared for Beasley, but they needed to maintain the professional standards of the Suns. Last week, Michael Beasley resigned with the Heat with a non-guaranteed deal. Meaning, if he makes the team, they will honor the contract.

All of that background information brings me to this question: Is it a good idea for a General Manager to take a chance on a player who is a chronic headache? Beasley has been berated for poor defensive effort, shoddy fundamentals, and poor focus on the game at every stop he has made. Is Pat Riley making a mistake by signing him, even if it is to a non-guaranteed deal? A few points:

• Michael Beasley is incredibly talented

You don’t get chosen 2nd overall in the NBA Draft unless you have some serious skills. Beasley is Lamar Odom 2.0 (without the pills). He is versatile, agile, athletic, and a skilled shooter. If he makes the Heat, he could theoretically bring a skillset that the team would otherwise not have. 

• The Heat are different than when he left

When Beasley was traded in 2010, the Heat replaced him with Chris Bosh, Lebron James, and eventually Shane Battier. If those three, with Dwayne Wade and Pat Riley, can’t put Michael Beasley on the straight and narrow, then I don’t think anyone could. The team structure and climate is so strong in Miami that players can’t help but behave. Lebron and Co. will not accept any less than Beasley’s best in training camp. 

• Again, non-guaranteed contract.

If Beasley doesn’t show up to training camp in great shape, if he doesn’t work hard every single rep during camp, or if he has a single authority issue, just cut him. Easy as pie.

I think Pat Riley made a wise decision as he tries to extend the Heat’s title window. Reclamation projects like Greg Oden and Michael Beasley cost the team little money, don’t threaten the Heat’s locker room (because of the strong leaders already there), and give the team an unexpected bonus if they pan out. Here’s hoping!

I think I love baseball.

Some Spring Training Sassafras

It is the time for baseball!! The grass is getting greener, the bugs are turning in their beds, and the smell of pine tar is suspiciously growing stronger in Arizona ballparks. Spring Training is a wonderful time for a baseball fan. I just want to take a second to list a few things that I am looking forward to in the 2013 MLB regular season

1.     Justin Verlander making Bugs Bunny look like Jamie Moyer.

2.     Giancarlo Stanton making baseballs fly to the moon.

3.     The inevitable catcalling from drunken revelers 10 rows behind me at the Chicago White Sox AAA affiliate, Charlotte Knights.

4.     I am interested in the continued success of R.A. Dickey as he transitions into the American League East

5.     I can’t wait to see Dylan Bundy, Wil Myers, and Billy Hamilton tear up the league in the 2^nd half. Rookies are the coolest.

6.     Mike Trout hitting .330 with 25 HR, 95 RBI, and 40 steals, and still getting shut out for AL MVP. (Just don’t ask me who I think will win)

7.     Andrew McCutchen not allowing teams to hit balls into the centerfield gaps.

8.     The Houston Astros losing 110 games, getting the #1 draft pick for the second year in a row, and attempting to continue their evolution into Tampa Bay Rays West.

9.     The disinterested looks I get from my wife and friends when I talk about WAR, or OBP, or Slugging, or anything related to baseball. I am pretty much alone in my circle in my love for America’s pastime.

10. Pitchers doing insane things to small, round, lacing-surrounded balls. The sliders, the changeups, the 12-6 bugs-bunny curveballs…I love it!!!!!

If you can’t tell, I am ready for some baseball.

NFL Preview: NFC

The second half of my 2012 NFL Preview...much better than the first half...somehow.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

            What can you really say about the Packers? Their offense is amazing, and their defense isn’t. If the defense can put some pressure on the quarterback, the secondary wouldn’t look quite so horrendous. Remember, they gave up almost 5,000 yards in the air in 2011. However, this is a team with Aaron Rodgers, so they will probably be just fine.

Detroit Lions

            The Lions are like the Packers 2.0. Their secondary couldn’t stop anybody, and their D-line didn’t really put up the sack numbers that most predicted they would. Megatron and Stafford will put up huge numbers, but when you are in a shootout every week, you are bound to lose some.

Chicago Bears

            Chicago fans (I would guess) are very bullish on their offense this year. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and healthy Forte and Cutler could be a pretty nice set of tools. However, the word healthy and NFL often do not go together very well. The defense should be top 10 in the league, and I think they can challenge for a wild card spot this year.

Minnesota Vikings

            The point of this season is just to prove to everyone that Adrian Peterson is a superhuman. You can put him down, but only for a bit. As AP comes back from this ACL tear, it is important to remember that the Vikings are starting a second year QB and that you shouldn’t expect them to be too much better than last years 3-13, maybe 5-12 or so.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

            Quick, which team in the NFL has the kind of leader on offense that can successfully deal with the suspension of a head coach for the entire season? I would like to submit the Saints as one of those teams. They will surely suffer some because of Sean Peytons suspension, but Drew Brees should be able to keep this offense in the upper echelon of the NFL. The Saints are also hoping that Curtis Lofton can bring them some added toughness against the run.

Atlanta Falcons

            Speaking of Lofton, he left this team, but the middle linebacker who is replacing him should do just fine. Sean Weatherspoon is a rising star in the league, and he should fill that leadership void. On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones and Roddy White should help ensure that the middle of the field is open, as they streak up the sidelines play after play. Perhaps this is the year that Matt Ryan joins the NFL elite?

Carolina Panthers

            Speaking of elite (I love segways), the Panther’s running game should be the leagues best in 2012. With a 3 headed RB attack (Williams, Stewart, Tolbert) and the runningest QB from last year, the Panther’s offense should be something to behold on the ground. As the running game stays strong, the Panthers also hope to see an improved Cam Newton. It is very possible that his statistics fall a little bit this year, but the Panther’s brass are hoping that the INT’s fall as well. Oh, and they can’t put pressure on the QB. Need to fix that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            The Bucs spent a little bit of money this offseason to help stretch the field. Vincent Jackson should be a nice option for Josh Freeman as he seeks to prove that he is a legitimate starting quarterback, and the addition of rookie RB Doug Martin can’t hurt either, as he can catch some balls out of the backfield. My biggest concern for this team is, much like the Panthers, their inability to get D-line penetration. Their big defensive investments from the last few drafts haven’t really paid dividends yet.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

            I just drafted Michael Vick in 3 of 4 fantasy football leagues, and I am very afraid. The guy has played 2 series in the preseason so far, and has gotten injured both times. If he can stay healthy, the Super Bowl is not too optimistic of a prediction. This team has it all. Offensive dynamos, defensive stalwarts, health is really their biggest question.

Dallas Cowboys

            Its always been about performance for Jerry Jones. He will pay for it, draft it, whatever. This season, it looks like his defense could finally be scary. The pass defense is much improved, and any team with Demarcus Ware is going to pressure the QB. BUT, as always, everything hinges on the QB. If Romo can utilize his weapons, this can be a playoff team.

New York Giants

            Call me crazy, but I see a slight dropoff for the Giants. Meaning, I don’t think they win the Super Bowl. Now, I should probably have them above the Cowboys, but I am going out on a limb and saying that the Giants miss the playoffs altogether this year. There are a lot of good teams in the NFC, and somebody has to lose.

Washington Redskins

            Just like in Indy, Washington is focused on their brand new baby, Robert Griffin III. Everyone who talks to this young man really likes him, and they will LOVE him is he can bring his athleticism and intelligence together and win some football games. The outside LB combo of Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan really help this defense as they swarm the pocket on every play.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

            Its nice when a team that sucks can suddenly become a team that wins. Mike Singletary couldn’t do it, but mean old Mr. Harbaugh has brought this team to a great place. The Defense is so good its inappropriate, and the offense was really well managed last year. (All of my “ifs” involve quarterbacks it seems) IF Alex Smith can air it out just a little more, while still not turning the ball over, the 49’ers should be right back at the top of the league.

Seattle Seahawks

            This is a team that is headed in the right direction. They have a young and exciting defense, led by Eric Thomas as the SS position, and they have a shiny new quarterback that they think will be really good. (There is discussion about whether that QB is Russel Wilson or Matt Flynn though) This team will still struggle to beat the really good teams in the NFC, but they are heading on up.

St. Louis Rams

            Ditto for the Rams. They have zero depth at wide receiver, and their pass defense needs some work…but they are the youngest team in the NFL, and they have skill and talent at a lot of positions. Give them 2 or 3 more years of drafting well and developing, and I think they are a playoff team. But not this year.

Arizona Cardinals

            You know how people say “last but not least”? Well, that does not apply to this list. The Arizona Cardinals should be the worst team in the league by several games. I think they will match the Colts 2-14 record from last year. The Quarterback situation is a mess, the offensive line is a mess, and the defense just doesn’t have the talent to make a difference. Sorry Cards fans, but your season is going to be depressing.

That’s the end of the NFL Preview…Sheesh, that took a really long time to write, and I am very glad that it is over. Now we can ignore everything I have said, since most of it will end up being wrong anyway, and focus on what’s important: Andrew Luck, my new favorite person in the world.

AFC Preview

Well, I guess I took the summer off from writing about sports, and that may have been a good thing. There was lots of baseball to watch, lots of MLB trades to not care about, and plenty of softball to be terrible at. Very busy. But, as the new sports year is gearing up, it brings with it the excitement of football! I know way more about the NFL than I do about NCAA football, so that is where I will focus. However, be prepared for some college football posts this fall as well.

To start the fall off, here is my NFL AFC preview. The teams are listed in the order that I think they will finish within the conference. I thought about projecting records, but then I remembered that that would require math. Nevermind.

AFC

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

            It is tough for a team to stay at the top of their division when their most productive and disruptive defensive player goes down. That will be the challenge that the Ravens face this year, as Terrel Suggs rehabs from a torn ACL. It will be up to the slimmer Ray Lewis and the rest of the Baltimore LBs to replace that production. The Ravens do still have one of the best running backs in football in Ray Rice, and Joe Flacco is back to his yearly routine of looking really good in training camp.

Pittsburgh Steelers

            For the Steelers, very little changes year to year. The offense will look very similar, although it will perhaps be without speedster Mike Wallace as he looks for a new contract. And the defense will be as annoying and stifling as ever. Although the older players on this Steeler’s defense are getting a bit gray haired, don’t expect their production to drop at all this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

            The Bengals are trying to build on a surprisingly successful 2011, where Andy Dalton grabbed the reigns at QB and A.J. Green looked like a superstar at wideout. The defense has added a couple of strong contributors, including a couple of starters at CB. This team probably can’t compete with Baltimore and Pittsburgh at the top of the division, but they will be entertaining to watch.

Cleveland Browns

            I hope the Browns like having high draft picks! I loved the 2011 Cleveland draft class, as Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson should both start and contribute mightily. However, there are too many holes on this roster for them to compete, although the defense could be SLIGHTLY improved this year.

AFC South

Houston Texans

            With the Texans, the questions on offense are all about health. If healthy, this team has a top 3 RB, a top 3 WR, and a top 12 (ish) QB. If Foster, Johnson, and Schaub can finish a season together, this could be a very dangerous team. On defense, they have lost some of their cornerstones, but the roster is deep and should adjust well to the losses.

Tennessee Titans

            The grizzled veteran versus the unpolished youngster. Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck will battle for the starting job this year, and if Locker wins the job, expect a more downfield offense. Chris Johnson returns from a full offseason of work, so should see his production tick upwards as well. Tennessee’s defense is very middle of the pack, so a slight increase or decrease in effectiveness should not be surprising. They need to work more on the run D than the passing defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

            MJD, he of the very muscular body, is holding out for more money. If you remember, Chris Johnson held out last year, then had a tough time regaining his former brilliance. If MJD misses all of the preseason, this team could be absolutely horrendous to watch. Blaine Gabbert had a lot of growing pains last year, and the Jags have to be praying he shows some positive growth during the 2012 season.

Indianapolis Colts

            As a Colts fan, you have to be excited for the youth at QB. Unfortunately, other than Andrew Luck, the recognizable faces of this franchise are all on the backsides of their career. Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are all incredibly talented players. However, it would be naïve to see expect any of these players to still be playing in 4 or 5 years. The Colts will try to groom their youth and draft well again next year.

AFC East

New England Patriots

            How do you make an offense with Tom Brady, Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski even scarier? Add Brandon Lloyd to it! The speedy wide receiver will make the Pats offense even harder to stop this year. To me, there are no questions about this team regressing, its just how much other teams progress.

Buffalo Bills

            Case in point for progression, the Bills. They added the scariest defensive end on the market in Mario Williams, and he should help make their defensive front very sturdy. If the Bills offense, and especially their quarterback, can find some consistency, they really should challenge for a Wild Card spot in the AFC

New York Jets

            When the most interesting thing that has happened in a while is that your 2^nd string QB took a rainy job with no shirt on, you know that NY will try to spice it up. Camp brawl anyone? If the Jets can get to the regular season without hurting anyone, I still have a hard time imagining them improving much with Mark Sanchez at the helm. I have never been a big fan, and I don’t think Tebow can steer this team to the promised land either. Oh, Revis island decided not to hold out, so that is good.

Miami Dolphins

            I don’t know about you, but I am overjoyed that Chad Ochocinco got cut from the Dolphins this week. He can’t produce anymore, and he is a constant distraction for a team that is seriously trying to get better. And the Dolphins are doing that. Reggie Bush showed last year that he can be a feature back, and the pass rush should provide the defense something to build on.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

            As you can see, I have the Broncos finishing at the top of this division. Care to guess why? Peyton Manning, that’s why. The Broncos ran the ball really well last year, even without a threat of throwing the ball. If you add in the respect that Manning will bring to the passing game, the runners should have a lot more space to work with this year. Like a lot of teams, Denver needs to improve its secondary, but their pass rush should be very effective.

San Diego Chargers

            The Chargers just can’t seem to shake the injury bug. Ryan Matthews and Vincent Brown will both be out for several weeks, although Matthews hopes to be back by Week 1 or 2. The success of this team largely rides on Philip Rivers. He needs to have a bounce-back year after he threw 20 interceptions last year.

Kansas City Chiefs

            The Chiefs are pretty scary on the offensive side of the ball. They have plenty of playmakers with Charles, Bowe and McCluster all on the field together. If Tamba Hali can get back on the field from his suspension and be effective, the defense will be just fine too, as Eric Berry comes back from injury to bolster the secondary.

Oakland Raiders

            Oakland fans are excited and probably a bit sad about their first full season without crazy man/owner Al Davis. However, the team is full of athletes that he drafted, and they have some optimism as they are relatively healthy this preseason. If Darren McFadden can stay on his feet for 16 weeks, the Raiders could move into the top 2 of this division. They have that kind of offensive talent.