NFL Combine Thoughts

Remember when I talked about the NFL putting stock in conferences and whatnot? Well, lest we forget, the NFL also puts an enormous amount of stock in the NFL Draft Combine. So, this article is going to take a bit of a look at some of the most important numbers from this past week’s 2012 NFL Draft Combine.

By far, the most important number from this past weekend was 3.41. Why, you ask? That, my friends, was the 40 yard dash time from Robert Griffin III, also known as the fastest 40 time since Michael Vick, also known as the sound of NFL GM’s giggling like 7 year old girls. We knew that RGIII was fast, but the numbers help bring a whole new level of excitement. If Griffin can make a lasting impression at his Pro Day, there will be zero questions about him being the 2^nd overall pick, and a lot of people will make noise about him supplanting Luck as the no. 1 pick overall.

Speaking of Luck, I want you to look at a set of numbers comparing two players.

4.67 40 yd dash, 36’’ vertical, 10’4” broad jump, 6.8 s cone drill

4.56 40 yd dash, 35” vertical, 10’6” broad jump, 6.92 cone drill

These two players seem really similar, yes? Well the first set of numbers is Andrew Luck’s results from the Sunday QB Combine session, and the second set is that of Cam Newton’s from 2011. These numbers are very, very similar. Yes, Newton was a bit faster, but these numbers basically mean that the two athletes are almost identical. Think about that. Luck, who is supposed to be the most impressive football prospect in the last 15 years, is just as good of an athlete as an NFL QB who set rookie records and stamped his name in Carolina Panther history. To some, that will make Luck even more attractive of a pick than he already is.

To look at some other impressive facts/numbers from this past weekends exhibition:

• Luke Keuchly, BC: He is the highest rated linebacker in this year’s draft, and he cemented his status with a really solid showing in the combine. He ran 3^rd fast 40 yd dash, had the 6^th most reps on the bench press, and showed a 38’ vertical. Impressive numbers for an impressive player.

• Stephen Hill, GT: This WR did not see many footballs thrown his way last season, as Georgia Tech ran the triple option offense and led the FBS schools in rushing yet again. But, he did show the athletic abilities of a stand out wide receiver. He ran a 4.36 40 yd dash, showed a 40 inch vertical, and jumped 11’1” on the broad jump (tied for longest at the combine). He obviously will need some work refining his craft, but all of the athletic abilities are there.

• Matt Kalil, USC: Everyone agrees that this Lineman will be a top 5 draft pick. He showed rather well, running a 4.99 40 yd dash, 30 reps on the bench, and putting up the 2^nd fastest time on the 3 cone drill. This impressive blocker has all of the tools to be a wonderful lineman for an up and coming team for a lot of seasons.

Those are only a few of the important numbers that NFL scouts and GMs took away from this past week, but you can look at all of them yourself if you just visit NFL.com/combine. Take a look and tell me what impressed you about the NFL combine.

Choosing the Youth

One thing that I always really enjoy doing is debating who is better among youth in the National Basketball Association. There are so many young and exciting players in the league right now, that it can be quite a chore to choose between the two. For this exercise, I am going to compare two rising starts at each position on the floor, then choose between the two to build a starting 5.

Point Guards:

Kyrie Irving (18.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.5 rpg, 20.74 PER)

John Wall     (16.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 5.1 rpg, 17.96 PER)

Wall and Irving are two of the most exciting point guard prospects in the league. This past weekend, Irving showed that he was the better perimeter shooter of the two, hitting 8 of 8 from the three point line in route to winning the Rising Starts MVP. John Wall showed his elite athleticism in the same game, putting on a dunk exhibition.

If I had to choose between these two exemplary young guards, the decision would be the most difficult on this list. Irving has shown more maturity than Wall, leading his team to upsets over good teams, while Wall has a higher potential based on his athleticism and size. If a gun was put to my head, at this point I would have to choose Irving.

Shooting Guards:

Eric Gordon *  (22.3 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.9 rpg, 18.56 PER) 

James Harden (16.8 ppg, 3.6 apg, 4.1 rpg, 21.03 PER)

Remember, we are building a starting five out of these young players, so you don’t necessarily just want the 5 best scorers out of the bunch. James Harden has emerged as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, leading the Thunder bench unit and finishing games on the court, much as Jason Terry does for the Mavericks. He is a great slasher and shooter, and his distributing/playmaking abilities are improving.

The other player in this pairing, Eric Gordon, has only played 2 games this year because of injuries. He is a prototypical 2 guard who can mix deadly outside shooting with slashing into the paint. However, because of the injury bug, for this edition of this column, I have to take Harden over Gordon, even though Gordon projects to be one of the better shooting guards in the NBA over the next 10 seasons. He must prove that he can stay healthy before he gets in my starting five. This round goes to Harden.

Small Forwards:

Gordon Hayward (9.4 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 rpg, 13.77 PER)

Paul George          (12.1 ppg, 2.2 apg, 5.5 rpg, 15.18 PER)

The small forward is an oft-forgotten spot on the floor, because these players tend to do a lot of things well, but nothing at an elite level. (Lebron is an exception, so just shut up) These two players are exactly the kind of glue that can hold a starting lineup together. Paul George is an exciting, athletic player who just participated in the NBA Slam Dunk contest this past weekend, and represented himself well. He is an improving shooter, and will really go to another level as a player when his ball handling skills improve to an acceptable level.

Gordon Hayward is a young player for the Utah Jazz who has proven that he can deliver on the big stage. (NCAA Final Four 2009) He is a jump shooter with a surprising amount of athleticism who can really facilitate well for his teammates. He is the consummate locker room guy, and would be a great addition to any roster. However, Paul George has the larger potential on both ends of the floor. He is quick enough to effectively shut down guards on defense, and will eventually become a great scorer on offense. I choose George.

Power Forwards:

Blake Griffin (21.4 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 23.41 PER)

Kevin Love    (25.0 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 24.70 PER

Lots of words have been written about this debate already. However, I will not waste too much of your time. The argument is very simple – Loud vs Quiet. Griffin’s Dunks, rebounds and blocked shots are very loud. Love’s rebounds, 3’s, and boxing out are very quiet. Which one do you prefer? I have no clue. I abstain from choosing in the Power Forward category. You literally cannot go wrong with either player.

Centers:

Javale Mcgee              (11.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.7 bpg, 19.64 PER)

Demarcus Cousings (16.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 20.83 PER)

Our final category may be the most interesting one of the bunch. These two young centers have both shown a surprising ability to be stupid. Whether is is Cousins getting his head coach fired (we know it was all him), or Javale McGee running back on defense and missing an entire possession because he didn’t care to turn around, these players have made a habit of making themselves look bad. However, they both are also dripping with potential. McGee is in the top 5 in the NBA in blocked shots, and is slowly improving his all around offensive game. Cousins has shown himself to be a double-double machine, and has the girth to bang in the paint with anybody. If there is one factor separating the two, it is that Cousins already has a good handle on his offensive game. Both players have myriad areas to improve in, but Cousins is already a consistent low-post presence. My starting center is Cousins.

Now, for those of you that know me, you know that I have chosen against my favorite players in the sg and sf positions. It was tough, and I cried a little, but it was worth it to have a starting 5 that will be All-Star caliber players for 12 years or more. Thoughts? Comments? Snarkiness from Adam Roof?

NBA Rookie of the Year Race

There comes a point in every season where we start looking at the end. Now, I am never excited by the end of a sports season, because that means that it is over, but there are interesting things that happen at the end of this 66 game NBA slog. One of these things will be the Rookie of they Year award. I have a list of the 5 players most likely to win this award. They may not be everyone’s favorite player, or the ones with the most potential, but they are the current players most likely to be voted MVP of Rookies when the season is over.

Kyrie Irving (18.3 ppg, 4.8 apg, 48% fg)

This young man is currently the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. He has shown zero ill effects from his toe injury at Duke, and is running the Cavaliers as well as can be expected. He is handling the pick and roll on offense much better as the season rolls around, and he is showing an athleticism that many people forgot he had. Kyrie Irving is already on his way to being a top 10 point guard in the NBA.

Ricky Rubio (11.5 ppg, 8.4 apg, 2.4 sp)

The Spaniard wizard has taken the NBA by storm this season. In the midst of “Linsanity” everyone has forgotten how thrilling Rubio has been to watch this season. He makes passes that remind people of Jason Kidd or Steve Nash, and he has shown great timing and anticipation on defense, ranking 2^nd in the NBA in steals per game. Rubio should be a foundational part of the Minnesota Timberwolves for a long time.

Kemba Walker (13.2 ppg, 3.8 apg, 3.9 rpg)

Now, we don’t want any point guard to be averaging more rebounds than assists for the season, but you have to give Walker some slack since his team is AWFUL. I did not pick the Bobcats to be the worst team in the league, but they have since showed that there are only 2-4 players on that entire roster worth keeping. In the meantime, Kemba Walker has shown some promise as a scoring point guard. He is not a pure passer, but he can get into the lane, finish in traffic, and is improving at finding the open player. His stats will only go up as talent (somehow) surrounds him in Charlotte.

Markieff Morris (8.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 41% 3pfg)

Like everyone else in the world, Markieff Morris (formerly of the Morris twins) benefits from playing with Steve Nash. Nash always finds people when they are open, and all that they have to do is hit the jump shots. Well, Morris has been doing a really good job of hitting those open jump shots. With range that stretches out the 3 point line, Morris has the potential to be a Channing Fry clone with a touch more nastiness. If he can find himself in the post once in a while, he could really be a difference maker.

Marshon Brooks (14.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg)

Probably the most gifted scorer in his class, Marshon Brooks has all the makings of a classic 2-guard. He is a black hole on offense, he shoots too much, he thinks he can hit every shot, but when he is hot he is something to watch. All of those issues I just mentioned do come up, but when you see the young man glide by the defense with his jillion foot long arms, you see some hope for him. Think of him as Nick Young with a small afro and the potential for a conscience.

Well, those are my NBA rookie rankings for the time being. I am sure that experts don’t agree with me, but these are the 5 rookies making the biggest difference for their teams.

The JR Smith Signing

The New York Knicks have been making news for all of the right reasons lately. They have won 7 of 8 games with Jeremy Lin starting, and the Harvard graduate is the toast of New York City right now. Hopefully, this recent success will be continued with the addition of supreme offensive player Carmelo Anthony, who has the potential to serve as a great counterpoint to Jeremy Lin.

However, I want to turn my attention elsewhere in the Knicks organization, to the recent signing of returning free agent JR Smith. Smith had spent the last few months ripping the Chinese Professional League in half, averaging over 30 ppg and generally showcasing how versatile of a scorer he is. My question is, is Smith a good pick up for the Knicks?

Immediate and resounding YES! The Knicks have a problem at the shooting guard position, mainly the word shooting. Iman Shumpert, Bill Walker, and Toney Douglas just have not been able to consistently knock down 3 pointers. As ESPN on ABC was nice enough to show us, JR Smith is 5^th in entire NBA in 3 pointers made over the last 3 seasons. The kid can hit a 3. And not only an open three, Smith can hit of the dribble, off of a pump fake, catch and shoot, curling off of a screen, or from 30 feet. Any shot imaginable, Smith cant hit. Now, the only problem is that Smith knows he can hit these shots, so he sometimes is a little hasty on the ole trigger finger and can shoot himself out of a game.

However, his above-average defense, ability to get into the paint, very good passing instincts, supreme shooting skills, and overall “New York” type of attitude should serve Earl very well as he continues his NBA career with the Knickerbockers. 

Quick MLB GM Thought

The Colorado Rockies have one of the oldest 1st basemen in the league in Todd Helton. He is a great character guy, but has been hit with the injury bug a lot in the last few years. The Los Angeles Angels have a glut of 1st basemen, with Pujols, Morales, and Trumbo. Mark Trumbo is only 25, and I think a nice package of pitching and youth could convince the Angels to give him up. You must be thinking to trade talent for talent, and if you are set for the present, be sure to trade for the future.

The Rockies get the corner infield power that they have been coveting, and the Angels could build their farm system up.

Rivalries and Humanity

            I can guarantee, if you grew up in America, or anywhere in the world that had professional sports, you had a team that you rooted for and a team that you rooted against. It is an unchangeable way of life in much of the world. If you are a Manchester City fan, you want to demolish Manchester United. If you love the Boston Bruins, you probably hate everyone else is every sport (New England fans) The Cubs and the Cardinals, the Patriots and the Colts, the Celtics and Lakers, the Vikings and the Packers, Duke and UNC…the list of rivalries could go on forever. There is no greater joy than seeing your team win, and the rival team suffer a crippling loss.

            Why do I feel the need to mention this? I would like to submit the idea that rivalry is an essential part of sports and sport-fandom. Without specific, vehement, blood boiling passion for your team, and an equal amount of disgust and hatred of one other specific team, sports would not be as exciting as they are today.

            What is the mystique and draw behind rivalries? Why do we feel the need to covet some victories over others, or wish for bodily harm to be done to the other teams head coach?

            I think that the answer to this question lies in humanities innate tendencies towards good and evil. Let me use Duke Basketball as an example. Dukie freshman Austin Rivers recently made a shot to beat the University of North Carolina Tarheels, Dukes most hated rival. There are two views of Austin Rivers, depending on which fan base you talk to. According to Duke fans, Austin Rivers is an ice cold killer, A shooter who can come through in the clutch and is working as hard as he can to improve under the tutelage of Coach K. To UNC fans, Rivers is an arrogant, swaggering, entitled rich kid. He walks around with a smirk on his face, and complains to the referees when his repeated forays into the paint do not result in free throws.

            Neither of these two views is totally correct, nor is it totally wrong. It is colored by the sense of good and evil within these two fan bases.

            A second reason why rivalries are so important to sport: As humans, we also have an innate desire to be the best. You will notice that rivalries are not really born out between one really awesome team and one horrific team. The best rivalries are between teams who are talented, or at least at the same level, and so that the competition is fierce, and the actual victories mean something in the grand scheme of things.

            For this example, lets look at the Yankees and the Red Sox. These two teams have been rivals for a century of baseball. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, Lou Gerig, Pedro Martinez, and many, many more great players have all been a part of this struggle for dominance in the AL East. In the early 2000’s, this rivalry had cooled off because of the dominance of the Yankees. They absolutely destroyed the Red Sox until the 2004 Playoffs, when they finally beat the Yankees and won a World Championship. That playoff series reunited the rivalry, and the continued success of these two teams keeps this rivalry at a high level. (It also helps that these two teams play 15+ times a season)

            Rivalries just appeal to us at our core. We pick a side, and we stick with that side through thick and thin, hell or high water. It is what help us become bands of brothers sitting in a living room, or a group of strangers all in the same bar, because we share a bond of team and enemy. Without that bond and that rivalry, sports would lack some of the emotion that makes it one of the highest grossing entertainment industries in the world.

            So here is my question: What do you think is the best or most exciting rivalry in sports, and why? Feel free to mention sports that aren’t the major American 3.

Does Conference Play Matter?

One question has been rolling around in my mind. And no, it is not Is Eli a better quarterback than Peyton? Although that question will haunt me for all of my days, I have different fish to fry today.

My question is: When a GM is looking at drafting a player, how much do they take the conference that they play for into consideration? How much of the production must be taken with a grain of salt because of the team or conference that a player is associated with? I do think there are different answers to this question for different sports.

MLB: Obviously, when you are drafting a player, you want to look at how they perform is pressure situations, and you want to see how they perform over the entirety of their college/high school career. In baseball, I think that individual performance and career numbers and potential play a bigger part than the conference a player participated in. Baseball puts more emphasis on potential and development than any other major American sport, so they look at a kids arm strength, or the way he could add muscle to his frame and still be an athlete. I don’t think MLB front offices care quite as much about level of competition as the NBA and NFL. (If you don't know much about the MLB Minors, take a look at Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects article on ESPN.com http://tinyurl.com/76o93rw)

NFL: In direct contrast, I think there is a major “conference bias” in the NFL. It may be warranted, but the SEC is seen as the conference where the best athletes come from, and the Big Ten is where you get solid offensive linemen. I wonder if these biases hold any weight, and I do think there is an argument that the best conferences attract the best talent. However, I think that football is a game where success is based enormously on the quality and performance of the rest of your teammates. So, sometimes a General Manager must consider how a player would perform on a worse team, or in a situation where the player would have filled a different role, before they decide that player is a good fit for their team.

NBA: Thankfully, the NBA is somewhere in between. Much like baseball, the NBA drafts players based on potential. Jimmer Fredette scored 28 ppg in college, yet he was not this first pick in the draft because he didn't have the most potential. For those players with potential, t is amazing how much of a transformation, both physically and in their game, takes place in the summer before a player's first NBA season. Players who show a bad attitude, or a poor competitive spirit will be drafted high because of their athletic ability or possible production. Players like Dwight Howard get drafted not because their skills are refined and they are ready to dominate, but because they have the potential to dominate for many years once they develop.

I don’t know how GM’s really look at the quality of competition of the players that they draft, but I know it should at least enter into their minds. A wunderkind putting up amazing numbers against St. Mary’s School of the Blind isn’t as impressive as modest numbers against top competition.

Thoughts? Potential over production or vice versa?